Sensitivity Analysis in Economic Simulations: A Systematic Approach

Sensitivity analysis studies how the variation in the numerical output of a model can be quantitatively apportioned to different sources of variation in basic input parameters. Thus, it serves to examine the robustness of numerical results with respect to input parameters, which is a prerequisite for deriving economic conclusions from them. In practice, modellers apply different methods, often chosen ad hoc, to do sensitivity analysis. This paper pursues a systematic approach. It formalizes deterministic and stochastic methods used for sensitivity analysis. Moreover, it presents the numerical algorithms to apply the methods, in particular, an improved version of a Gauss-Quadrature algorithm, applicable to one as well as multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods and algorithms are discussed as well as their applicability. --Sensitivity Analysis,Computational Methods

Hydrogen in Passenger Transport: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Hydrogen is often seen as a promising future energy carrier given the major reliance of today?s transport sector on finite fossil fuels. This working paper assesses the macroeconomic effects of introducing hydrogen as fuel in passenger transport within the framework of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model PACE-T(H2). Our simulation results suggest small improvements in the macroeconomic performance in almost all European countries from the introduction of hydrogen. The magnitude of economic effects however depends on the assumed learning curve of hydrogen cars and on the future development of hydrogen infrastructure costs. The results presented in this paper build on data and projections developed in the EU funded ?HyWays? project. --

Latin versus European Power: A Tale of Two Market Reforms

This paper compares electricity market reforms in the European Union with reforms in Chile and Brazil. The paradigm of competitive market structures for the electricity sector, as developed in the economics literature, is outlined: competitive markets in generation and retailing and an independent regulator of the natural monopoly in transmission and generation. We present the institutional framework as well as the development of electricity markets in the European Union, Chile and Brazil and discuss in how far they comply with the textbook paradigm. Considerable differences emerge: While the European Union follows a path of full liberalization, facing, however, great difficulties in achieving unbundling of vertically integrated electricity companies and transnational competition, Chile and Brazil have only partially liberalized their electricity sector, enacting regulation to ensure household consumer protection and security of supply. --

An adverse selection model of optimal unemployment insurance

We derive the shape of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) contracts when agents can exert search effort but face different search costs and have private information about their type. We derive a recursive solution of our dynamic adverse selection problem with repeated moral hazard. Conditions under which the UI agency should always offer separating contracts are identified. We show that the good searcher receives an information rent and that the bad searcher receives the minimal entitlement. From a methodological point of view, we achieve a precise characterization of the sets of jointly feasible entitlements. This allows us to map our analytical results one-toone to a numerical algorithm. According to our results the contract for the good searcher has a decreasing benefit profile, as the one he would be offered in a pure moral hazard environment. In contrast, the contract of the bad searcher is distorted by an adverse selection effect, so that it tends to have an upward-sloping benefit profile. We provide a comparative static analysis of changes in various parameters of our model. --Unemployment Insurance,Adverse Selection,Moral Hazard

Hydrogen in Passenger Transport: A macroeconomic analysis

Hydrogen is often seen as a promising future energy carrier given the major reliance of today’s transport sector on finite fossil fuels. This working paper assesses the macroeconomic effects of introducing hydrogen as fuel in passenger transport within the framework of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model PACE-T(H2). Our simulation results suggest small improvements in the macroeconomic performance in almost all European countries from the introduction of hydrogen. The magnitude of economic effects however depends on the assumed learning curve of hydrogen cars and on the future development of hydrogen infrastructure costs. The results presented in this paper build on data and projections developed in the EU funded ‘HyWays’ project

Sensitivity analysis in economic simulations : a systematic approach

Sensitivity analysis studies how the variation in the numerical output of a model can be quantitatively apportioned to different sources of variation in basic input parameters. Thus, it serves to examine the robustness of numerical results with respect to input parameters, which is a prerequisite for deriving economic conclusions from them. In practice, modellers apply different methods, often chosen ad hoc, to do sensitivity analysis. This paper pursues a systematic approach. It formalizes deterministic and stochastic methods used for sensitivity analysis. Moreover, it presents the numerical algorithms to apply the methods, in particular, an improved version of a Gauss-Quadrature algorithm, applicable to one as well as multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods and algorithms are discussed as well as their applicability

Climate Policy and the Problem of Competitiveness: Border Tax Adjustments or Integrated Emission Trading?

In the absence of an international agreement on climate policy, unilateral carbon abatement creates two problems: It tends to have a detrimental effect on domestic competitiveness, and it leads to an increase in carbon emissions abroad (leakage). This paper analyses two policies that have recently been proposed to mitigate these problems: Border tax adjustments (BTA) and integrated emission trading (IET). The former policy levies a quantity-based, the latter an emission based duty on imports from non-abating countries. In a stylised two-country model we demonstrate that the policies address both problems. However, BTA protects domestic competitiveness more effectively, while IET achieves a greater reduction in foreign emissions. A computational general equilibrium analysis of the unilateral abatement policy adopted by the European Union confirms our theoretical insights for the sectors covered by the offsetting measures. However, the implications for the competitiveness of noncovered sectors are negative. These two effects constitute the central trade-off in the implementation of both policies. --Border Tax Adjustments,Climate Policy,Competitiveness,Emission Trading

Energieeffizienz – eine neue Aufgabe für staatliche Regulierung?

Hinter der Forderung nach höherer Energieeffizienz stehen üblicherweise konkrete umwelt- und energiepolitische Ziele wie Klimaschutz, Versorgungssicherheit und Ressourcenschonung. Das vorliegende Papier analysiert diese Argumente und diskutiert mögliche Politikinstrumente zur Zielerreichung. Dabei zeigt sich, dass eine rationale Wirtschaftspolitik im Fall von energierelevantem Marktversagen und Problemen intergenerationaler Gerechtigkeit kosteneffiziente, spezifische Instrumente nutzen sollte. Hierzu zählen informatorische Maßnahmen, CO2- Zertifikate und spezifische Energiesteuern. Eine höhere Energieeffizienz ist Ergebnis einer solchen rationalen Politik und nicht Mittel zum Zweck. Pauschale Instrumente, die direkte Energiesparvorgaben machen, wie Weiße Zertifikate und Zwangsstandards sind dagegen nicht zu empfehlen

Energieeffizienz: Eine neue Aufgabe für staatliche Regulierung?

Hinter der Forderung nach höherer Energieeffizienz stehen üblicherweise konkrete umwelt- und energiepolitische Ziele wie Klimaschutz, Versorgungssicherheit und Ressourcenschonung. Das vorliegende Papier analysiert diese Argumente und diskutiert mögliche Politikinstrumente zur Zielerreichung. Dabei zeigt sich, dass eine rationale Wirtschaftspolitik im Fall von energierelevantem Marktversagen und Problemen intergenerationaler Gerechtigkeit kosteneffiziente, spezifische Instrumente nutzen sollte. Hierzu zählen informatorische Maßnahmen, CO2-Zertifikate und spezifische Energiesteuern. Eine höhere Energieeffizienz ist Ergebnis einer solchen rationalen Politik und nicht Mittel zum Zweck. Pauschale Instrumente, die direkte Energiesparvorgaben machen, wie Weiße Zertifikate und Zwangsstandards sind dagegen nicht zu empfehlen. --

Latin versus European power : a tale of two market reforms

This paper compares electricity market reforms in the European Union with reforms in Chile and Brazil. The paradigm of competitive market structures for the electricity sector, as developed in the economics literature, is outlined: competitive markets in generation and retailing and an independent regulator of the natural monopoly in transmission and generation. We present the institutional framework as well as the development of electricity markets in the European Union, Chile and Brazil and discuss in how far they comply with the textbook paradigm. Considerable differences emerge: While the European Union follows a path of full liberalization, facing, however, great difficulties in achieving unbundling of vertically integrated electricity companies and transnational competition, Chile and Brazil have only partially liberalized their electricity sector, enacting regulation to ensure household consumer protection and security of supply